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The Northeast Power Coordinating Council, Inc. (NPCC) estimates the region will have an adequate supply of electricity this winter to meet demand, according to its 2025-2026 winter reliability assessment. NPCC’s region covers New York, New England, the provinces of Ontario, Quebec, and the Canadian Maritime Provinces of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.
NPCC projects the regional simultaneous peak demand forecast for the entire region of 112,810 MW to occur the week of January 18, 2026. This coincidence peak demand is slightly higher than last winter’s forecast. Approximately 161,426 MW of installed capacity is projected to be in service to meet the forecasted electricity demand.
After accounting for transmission constraints, NPCC’s assessment estimates the region’s spare operable capacity (over and above reserve requirements) ranges from 15,511 to 25,177 MW over the winter period.
New England, New York, Ontario, and Quebec all forecast adequate resources to meet their expected winter demand; limited use of operating procedures in the Maritimes are estimated.
A wide range of conditions were analyzed, including higher than expected demand, unexpected generation unavailability, transmission constraints, and reduced transfer capability between neighboring regions.
“The NPCC annual winter assessment provides stakeholders across our region with valuable insights to better inform system and operational planning” said Charles Dickerson, President and Chief Executive Officer of NPCC. “It is worth noting that while NPCC expects the region will have adequate supply this winter, established procedures are available to maintain system reliability if higher than expected loads and/or additional resource outages occur (for example, resulting from extreme or protracted weather events).”
NPCC supports consistent, ongoing communications with system operators and neighboring regions to further strengthen coordination, improve situational awareness, mitigate risks, and maintain reliability.
“The completion of several transmission projects has reinforced overall regional reliability” said Phil Fedora, NPCC’s Chief Engineer and Senior Vice President of External Affairs. “For example, the New England Clean Energy Connect is expected to be in service this winter, capable of importing up to 1,200 MW into New England from Quebec.”
