As temperatures rise and energy demands surge, the risk of power shortfalls becomes a growing concern for many regions across North America. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has warned in its 2023 Summer Reliability Assessment that various parts of North America are at high risk of energy shortfalls during peak demand periods due to extreme heat and the excessive use of air conditioners.
In recent years, NERC has become more aggressive with its warnings regarding reliability concerns, especially after rotating outages had to be imposed by power grid operators in California in August 2020 and in Texas in 2021. With past incidents of grid failures in California and Texas still fresh in memory, NERC’s latest assessment highlights key vulnerabilities in the Bulk Power System (BPS) and provides recommendations to mitigate potential outages.
What Is NERC’s Summer Reliability Assessment (SRA)?
NERC’s Summer Reliability Assessment (SRA) covers the four-month summer period from June to September. The SRA “identifies, assesses, and reports on areas of concern regarding the reliability of the North American Bulk Power System (BPS) for the upcoming summer season. In addition, the SRA presents peak electricity demand and supply changes and highlights any unique regional challenges or expected conditions that might affect the reliability of the BPS.”
The 2023 Summer Reliability Assessment report by NERC came out in May. It states that “all areas are assessed as having adequate anticipated resources for normal summer peak load and conditions.” The report mentioned that the following parts of the country face the risk of shortfalls in electricity supply due to extreme conditions during the summer months.
- Midcontinent ISO (MISO)
- NPCC-New England
- NPCC-Ontario
- SERC-Central
- Southwest Power Pool (SPP)
- Texas (ERCOT)
- U.S. Western Interconnection.
Recommendations by the 2023 Summer Reliability Assessment
Below are the recommendations from NERC’s 2023 SRA to mitigate the risk of electricity shortfalls on the BPS during the summer months.
- Reliability Coordinators (RCs), Balancing Authorities (BAs), and Transmission Operators (TOPs) in the elevated risk areas identified by the SRA should take the following actions:
- In anticipation of extreme demand levels, review the seasonal operating plans and the protocols for communicating and resolving potential supply shortfalls;
- To ensure adequate availability of resources, employ conservative generation and transmission outage coordination procedures in proportion with long-range weather forecasts;
- For the efficient implementation of demand-side management mechanisms mentioned in the operating plans, engage and prepare state or provincial regulators and policymakers.
- The recommendations issued in March 2023 by NERC in the inverter-based resource performance issues alert should be implemented by Generator Operators (GOs) with solar PV resources.
- In the states affected by the new Good Neighbor Plan, RCs, BAs, and GOs should make themselves familiar with its provisions, in order to ensure electric reliability. They must have protocols in place so they may act to preserve generation resources so they are able to support periods of high demand. Also, protocols must be in place at the start of summer by state regulators and the industry.
Conclusion
With rising temperatures and growing energy demands, the risk of electricity shortfalls remains a critical concern across North America. NERC’s 2023 Summer Reliability Assessment underscores the importance of proactive planning, resource management, and regulatory coordination to maintain grid stability. Implementing key strategies such as reviewing operational plans, optimizing outage coordination, and strengthening demand-side management can help grid operators and policymakers mitigate disruptions. As extreme weather events increasingly threaten energy reliability, staying ahead of potential shortages is essential to ensuring a resilient and secure power system.
Disclaimer: Any opinions expressed in this blog do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Certrec. This content is meant for informational purposes only.
